Kotzebue, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXAK69 PAFG 212117
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1217 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Happy Solstice! The first day of astronomical winter comes in with
seasonable temperatures across the Interior and North Slope, and
above normal temperatures on the West Coast. Northerly winds will
be increasing from Point Hope to St. Lawrence Island with gusts of
60-75 mph expected tonight through Tuesday night before gradually
weakening thereafter. We will also be expecting a long duration
snow event from the Brooks Range to the Western Interior

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Dry today with seasonably chilly temperatures. A more
  significant warm up arrives tomorrow with an increase in clouds
  and snow.

- Widespread snow blossoms over the Northern Interior tomorrow
  evening from Fort Yukon to Allakaket.
- Areas of intermittent light snow possible from Eagle to Tanana
   tomorrow night into Monday morning.

- Snow in the Northern Interior continues into Tuesday, then
  shifts westward on Wednesday with most of the snow exiting to
  the west.
- Snow totals over the 3 day stretch may be upwards of 6-12
   inches in the Northern Interior, and 1-4 inches from Tanana to
   Eagle.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- High wind warning from Point Hope to St. Lawrence Island
  tonight through Tuesday night with gusts upwards of 60-75mph.
- The strongest winds are expected from Diomede to Gambell.
- Northerly wind continues past Tuesday, but will become
   gradually weaker as the week progresses.

- Areas of light snow develop in the Western Interior as early as
  Sunday afternoon from Shaktoolik to Shungnak. More widespread
  snow is expected Monday afternoon and may be heavy at times from
  Holy Cross north.

- The YK Delta, Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Borough look to
  miss out of the heaviest snow from Monday into Tuesday morning,
  but the band of snow looks to progress west with widespread snow
  moving into the YK Delta and Eastern Seward Peninsula Tuesday
  afternoon.
- Snow continues from YK Delta to Ambler and east from there into
   Wednesday with significant accumulations over 6 inches
   possible.
- There is uncertainty with this! Guidance has been meandering
   back and forth with the heaviest snow band, but it is looking
   probable that portions of Western Alaska (especially the Yukon
   Delta) get their first significant snow of the year.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Relatively benign weather for most of the area.

- Northeast winds strengthen in Point Hope today with gusts to 60
  mph likely tonight through Monday afternoon.

- We`ll be monitoring snow developing in the Brooks Range south
  and east of Anaktuvuk Pass Sunday afternoon. Snow will continue
  here through Wednesday afternoon.
- Heaviest axis of snow will be from the Dalton Highway east to
   Arctic Village.
- Lighter snows are expected in Anaktuvuk Pass through Monday,
   then there is a chance for heavy snow on Tuesday.
- This snow will expand northward to the Arctic Coast between
   Deadhorse and Kaktovik Monday night to Wednesday.
- As of now there is still a lot of uncertainty with the exact
   placement of the snow, but heavy snow is likely to occur in
   some spots from Deadhorse to Kaktovik, south to Arctic Village
   and the Dalton Highway.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence
A 1028 mb arctic high pressure in Siberia will be interacting
with a 960 mb low moving into the southern Bering Sea. As the low
moves northwest, a pressure gradient will develop resulting in
very strong northerly winds from Point Hope to St. Lawrence
Island. There is high confidence that these winds will continue
through Monday in Point Hope and through Tuesday night from
Diomede to St. Lawrence Island. Otherwise, these features will
also form in a deformation zone over much of Northern Alaska,
resulting in some widespread, long duration snow. Chances for
heavy snow exist from the Yukon Delta to Kaktovik. The main axis
of snow initially develops from Fort Yukon to Allakaket with
lighter snow expected in the Brooks Range and from Tanana to
Eagle. The heaviest snow will will persist in the Northern
Interior and Eastern Brooks Range through Wednesday. The Western
Interior will get into the snow on Monday, then the West Coast on
Tuesday. There is lower confidence in where the snow sets up
across the Western Interior Monday and Tuesday, but anywhere from
Hooper Bay to Shageluk northward are in play for moderate to heavy
snow. The only spots that may completely miss out on the heavy
snow are the NW Arctic Borough and Central/Western Seward
Peninsula. There will be more details to come on this heavy snow
and where it sets up as we gain more confidence tonight and
tomorrow.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Extended periods of snowfall will continue through the northern
portions of the interior. As the weekend rolls around cold arctic
air will rush down into the western interior as the front moves
through the state. There is significant model disagreements on the
intensity as well as the extent of the coldest temperatures. The
Canadian model is the most vigorous with 850 mb temperatures of
-35 to -40. While the GFS has -20 850mb temperatures. At the
 surface low temperatures could approach -20 degrees at Nome and
-35 in the middle Yukon Valley. With limited snowfall currently on
 the Seward Peninsula and much of the Y-K Delta there could be
 concerns for frozen pipes.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Strong northerly winds in through the Bering Strait through
Tuesday night. Coastal erosion is the main concern at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814>816-832.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ820-821.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ827.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-807-816-817-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ801-802.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-856-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807-811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Storm Warning for PKZ816-817-854.
     Storm Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Key Messages...BB
Analysis...BB
Extended...SD